We have all heard of the predictions of “Peak Oil” – the point in time when World Wide Crude Oil Production would plateau before entering a period of terminally declining production as this finite natural resource is used up. The most famous of these predictions was that of M. King Hubbert who predicted “Peak Oil” would be reached in 1970, but there were many other such predictions dating back nearly a century.
In more recent years, there have been predictions of “Peak Oil Demand”. Those prognosticators claim that World Wide Demand for oil will be reached long before we reach “Peak Oil”. The most recent of these predictions came from BP yesterday, and reported by the Wall Street Journal and other news outlets.
“The world’s appetite for oil and other liquid fuels could continue to grow until around 2035, hitting 110.3 million barrels a day—compared with 95 million barrels a day in 2015—before plateauing and falling off in the run up to 2040, the British oil-and-gas giant said Tuesday in the main future scenario, releasing its annual energy outlook,” says The Journal.
“Peak demand could represent a potential reckoning for energy companies that had grown accustomed to crude consumption growing almost every year for over a century. Already, BP, Royal Dutch Shell PLC and other companies have been investing more in natural gas, which has become a vital fuel for producing electricity, and experimenting with renewable production.”
“BP’s central forecast assumes that current government policies, technology and societal preferences will evolve in the future similarly to how they have in recent years…BP stressed the central forecast was one of six possible scenarios, none of which it would endorse as most likely…By 2040, oil, gas, coal and non-fossil fuels [will] each account for around a quarter of the world’s energy...Still, BP expects personal vehicles and industrial trucks ‘to be dominated by oil,’ with demand for the fuel comprising around 85% of total transport fuel demand in 2040, compared with 94% today,” reports the WSJ.
“BP’s views on peak-oil demand aren’t universally accepted in the industry. Last month at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, Saudi energy minister Khalid al-Falih said oil demand would rise as high as 120 million barrels a day over the next two to three decades,” according to the Journal.
Click here to read the original article from the Wall Street Journal.